Evacuation plan evaluation: Assessment of vehicular evacuation schemes by means of an analytical dynamic traffic model

Abstract

An evacuation model is posed, combining a dynamic travel demand component, an adaptive travel choice behaviour component, and a dynamic network loading component. The travel demand component considers the primary choice facing the endangered residents, whether to participate in the evacuation, and if so, when to depart. The travel choice behaviour component considers the secondary choice facing the evacuees, where to seek refuge and by which route to travel towards this safe destination. The network loading component considers both the dynamic traffic and hazard conditions, and propagates the evacuees through the infrastructure network. The proposed model can act on a broad spectrum of hazards, as it uses general features to compute the effects of the hazard on the evacuation. Furthermore, the model structure enables the assessment of various categories of evacuation, ranging from voluntary over recommended to mandatory. And, the behavioural responses of the evacuees towards evacuation instructions are modelled, such that instructions can be followed fully, followed in part, or rejected completely. An illustrative example of a hypothetical evacuation shows the principles and possibilities of the posed evacuation model.