Climate Change, Enhanced Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Passenger Transport – What can we do to make a difference?

Abstract

Climate change, global warming and enhanced greenhouse gas emissions (GGEs) are hot topics for many reasons, including scientific and speculative. The transportation sector, led by the automobile, has been cited constantly as a major contributor through human intervention to climate change. The media and lobby groups have, for many years escalated the case for finding ways to reduce the impact that people movement has on enhanced GGEs. Governments have ramped up the rhetoric to gain political support. Short of banning car use, the challenge remains one of understanding better what mix of actions might contribute in non-marginal ways to reducing the growth of GGEs (primarily CO2) and even reduce the absolute amount of CO2 produced by automobility. This paper evaluates potentially effective instruments that are aimed at a number of policy objectives linked to the triple bottom line – efficiency, sustainability and equity – focussing on social surplus gains in addition to cost effectiveness; but in particular the ability to reduce CO2. We use TRESIS, an integrated transport, land use and environmental strategy impact simulation program, developed by the author, to assess the influence on CO2 of a number of ‘at source’ and ‘mitigation’ instruments such as improvements in fuel efficiency, a carbon tax, congestion charging, variable user charges, and improvements in public transit. We apply TRESIS to the Sydney metropolitan area with instruments enacted in 2010 up to 2015. There are some instruments that can reduce CO2 in the passenger transport sector by 5 percent over the next 8 years, with some more politically palatable, although requiring a greater amount of investment outlay by government. A mix of technological improvement linked to fuel efficiency and pricing of car use offer the most balanced way forward in terms of impacts on all stakeholders, especially in preserving government revenue sources and the opportunity to re-invest back into the transport sector through improved multi-modal infrastructure.