Approximation of Bayesian Efficiency in Experimental Choice Designs

Abstract

This paper compares different types of simulated draws over a range of number of draws in generating Bayesian efficient designs for stated choice studies. The paper examines how closely pseudo Monte Carlo, quasi Monte Carlo and polynomial cubature methods are able to replicate the true levels of Bayesian efficiency for SC designs of various dimensions. The authors conclude that the predominantly employed method of using pseudo Monte Carlo draws is unlikely to result in leading to truly Bayesian efficient SC designs. The quasi Monte Carlo methods analyzed here (Halton, Sobol, and Modified Latin Hypercube Sampling) all clearly outperform the pseudo Monte Carlo draws. However, the polynomial cubature method examined in this paper, incremental Gaussian quadrature, outperforms all, and is therefore the recommended approximation method for the calculation of Bayesian efficiency of stated choice designs.