Windows of change as precursors to changing travel behaviour aligned with sustainable mobility

Abstract

There is increasingly a greater focus on ways in which we can achieve behavioural change associated with improved sustainability outcomes in the transport sector. In societies where the car is the dominant passenger transport mode with all of its associated interpretations of convenience, we continue to search for ways to change travel habits that result in a switch out of the car in favour of public transport and active modes. The focus of this paper is on identifying windows of change (WoC) that have subsequently had an influence on the travel mobility preferences of individuals, hopefully in ways that support sustainability outcomes. We categorise the WoCs into four broad areas: lifestyle and household changes (e.g., changes in living arrangements, family structure, or personal habits), work and commuting-related changes (e.g., changes in employment, workplace incentives or commuting patterns), transport and mobility changes (e.g., changes in vehicle ownership, public transport use or travel habits), and social and environmental considerations (including awareness and influence of others). A series of negative binomial count models are estimated to identify the relationship between the WoCs and modal one-way trip frequency in a typical week, after controlling for various socioeconomic effects and country dummy variables. Data is collected from over 4,000 respondents spread across Australia, Finland, New Zealand, the United States, the United Kingdom, Singapore, and Sweden, investigating respondents’ WoC over the period 2023–2025 and their most recent weekly travel patterns. The findings provide a rich array of policy advice on what key WoC influences suggest actionable ways to support the switch to more sustainable modes, and what remain as clear barriers to achieving such an outcome.