Profiling future passenger transport initiatives that garner community support as a guide to identify the growing role of active and micro-mobility modes: a MDCEV model

Abstract

This paper examines the factors influencing the adoption and frequency of use of sustainable transport modes including walking, cycling, electric bicycles, electric vehicles, and public transport, for different trip purposes. Using a two-stage stated preference experiment in metropolitan Australia, we use a mixed multinomial logit model (MML) model to estimate the probability of adopting door-to-door travel alternatives, followed by a multiple discrete-continuous extreme value (MDCEV) model to capture the number of weekly trips taken by mode and purpose. Results show that trip purpose plays a significant role in mode selection, with commuting trips associated with greater willingness to shift to active and electric modes, especially when infrastructure quality is high. In contrast, shopping and personal business trips are more sensitive to access mode and mode experience. E-bikes emerge as a flexible option for both commuting and recreational trips, while walking is mainly preferred for short, non-commute travel. The findings underscore the importance of purpose-specific strategies and high-quality infrastructure in promoting sustainable and integrated mobility futures.