Predicting cases and deaths in europe from covid-19 tests and country populations

Abstract

The paper presents a critical analysis of the European spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes the COVID-19 disease across 48 European countries and territories, including the Monaco and Andorra principalities and Vatican City. Simple cross-sectional regressions, using country populations, are able to predict quite accurately both the total number of cases and deaths, which cast doubt on measures aimed at controlling the disease via lockdowns. This throws into sharp contrast the relative effectiveness of the attempts to risk manage the spread of the virus by 'flattening the curve' of the speed of transmission, and the efficacy of lockdowns in terms of the spread of the disease and death rates. The algorithmic techniques, results and analysis presented in the paper should prove useful to the medical and health professions, science advisers and risk management and decision making of healthcare by state, regional and national governments in all countries in Europe.