Smoking choices, nicotine and addiction: A choice modelling approach applied to smokers in the US

Abstract

Use of choice models is growing rapidly in tobacco research. These models are being used to answer key policy questions. However, certain aspects of smokers’ choice behaviour are not well understood. One such feature is addiction. Here, we address this issue by modelling data from a choice experiment on US smokers. We model addiction using a latent variable. We use this latent variable to understand the relationship between choices and addiction, giving attention to nicotine levels. We find that more addicted smokers have stronger preferences for cigarettes and are unwilling to switch to e-cigarettes. Further, addicted smokers value nicotine in tobacco products to a much greater extent than those that are less addicted. Lastly, we forecast short- term responses to lowering nicotine levels in cigarettes. The results suggest that current nicotine-focused policies could be effective at encouraging addicted smokers to less harmful products and lead to substantial public health gains.