|Title:||Risky Weighting in Discrete Choice|
Hensher, David A.
|Keywords:||cumulative prospect theory; discrete choice analysis, risk perception; road tolling; travel time.|
|Abstract:||This paper presents a new approach to discrete choice analysis for risky prospects. Conventional discrete choice analysis focuses on riskless prospects and does not deal with the scenario where the alternatives that the decision-makers choose from are associated with risk. In this paper, we investigate decision-makers’ risk perception and choice behaviour in choice experiments when they are facing several risky prospects. We propose a broad class of cumulative risky weighting functions, upon which a unified cumulative risky weighting function is developed. We show that this unified cumulative risky weighting function includes several existing cumulative risky weighting functions as special cases. We then develop a multivariate method for choice analysis with risky prospects to account for decision-makers’ individual-specific risk perception and the impact of various factors on the value function respectively. We illustrate the developed method using an empirical study on road tolling in Australia.|
|Type of Work:||Working Paper|
|Appears in Collections:||ITLS Working Papers 2017|
|ITLS-WP-17-10.pdf||1.27 MB||Adobe PDF|
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