Joint estimation of mode and time of day choice accounting for arrival time flexibility, travel time reliability and crowding on public transport

Abstract

This study develops joint choice models of mode and departure time for implementation in MetroScan, a new version of TRESIS (Hensher and Ton, 2002). Separate models are estimated for work and non-work purposes, testing all practical alternatives of model structure with a rich set of explanatory variables. The contributions of the current work to the existing TRESIS are twofold. First, travel demand for non-work purposes such as shopping, social and recreation are explicitly modelled in MetroScan as opposed to TRESIS that scales the demand for work purposes to obtain non-work travel demand. Second, choices of travel mode and departure time become more sensitive to situational factors such as the flexibility of arrival time, the reliability of travel time and crowding. Willingness to pay for various improvements to the level of service is derived. We describe how the proposed models are applied in the general modelling framework of MetroScan.