APPROACHING A DYNAMIC URBAN TRANSIT DEMAND MODEL FOR SYDNEY

Abstract

Urban Australia has seen a continuing movement away from public transit. In 1988 over 95% of all passenger kilometres in the Sydney Metropolitan area were by car and truck. There is now a growing recognition of the costs of increased automobile use both locally in terms of congestion, pollution and accident costs and globally from vehicle greenhouse gas emissions. Strategies to stem the trend must come from a clear understanding of all the factors affecting demand in the long and short term at the micro-economic level. This paper discusses the approach to be used in development of a dynamic model system for transit demand in Sydney using travel survey data from 1971, 1981 and 1991. Use of data spanning 20 years means that the effect of land use on transit demand can be examined. The model system will aim to allow analysis of questions regarding public vs private transport not as “either / or” but rather in terms of providing the most appropriate mode for the context.