On the stability of preferences and attitudes: a hybrid model of air travel preferences at two different points in time

Abstract

Many methods have been developed to give transport policy makers better insight into why different choices are made. One such methodology that has been receiving increasing attention is the hybrid choice model, which seeks to allow for a better understanding of the relationship between choices and attitudes or character traits latent to the respondent. Recently there has been debate as to the appropriateness of using such models to conclude that a change in a given attitude will bring a change in choice given the focus on cross-sectional data. To address this, we propose a framework to examine the stability of choices and attitudes over time. Making use of a repeated stated preference experiment conducted at two points in time on an identical set of respondents we find that, in the context of air security procedures, preferences and latent attitudes are relatively stable over time despite the two different and extreme shocks at the times the survey was conducted. While this is comforting to transport policy makers in some respects, these results lead one to ask that if choices and preferences do not change in extreme situations how changeable are they truly in the context of a nudge agenda by many governments? Additionally, we find some evidence that for the most part while latent attitudes are invariant, the role they play in choices differs over waves suggesting potential cognitive dissonance.