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dc.contributor.authorBRYCKI, JONATHON
dc.date.accessioned2009-02-26T03:24:12Z
dc.date.available2009-02-26T03:24:12Z
dc.date.issued2009-02-26T03:24:12Z
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2123/4075
dc.description.abstractThis thesis investigates the weak and semi-strong form efficiency of the fixed odds English Premier League soccer betting market between 2002-03 and 2007-08. Recent structural changes – including a reduction in taxes, and the rapid growth of online bookmakers – renders this market ideal for empirical efficiency analysis. Weak form evidence indicates that favourite-longshot and home ground advantage biases exist in the quoting of bookmaker odds. In order to conduct semi-strong form analysis, a number of ordered probit models are specified, incorporating fundamental variables which are widely perceived to contain predictive power with regard to the outcome of a soccer match. The Kelly betting strategy isutilised to analyse the economic significance of their predictions, for matches played in the three most recently completed seasons, 2005-06 to 2007-08. It is found that the implementation of two methodological adjustments – the avoidance of bets on away longshots, and a staggered start and finish to betting in each season – results in the generation of significantly positive returns, providing strong evidence against semi-strong form economic efficiency. Evidence presented in this thesis indicates a strong preference for a fractional Kelly strategy and supports the technique of combining forecasts, findings consistent with previous literature. Further, it is shown that a distinct improvement to the returns from any strategy can be obtained by shopping around for the best available odds.en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.rightsThe author retains copyright of this thesis
dc.subjectSTATISTICAL AND ECONOMIC TESTS OF EFFICIENCY IN THE ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE SOCCER BETTING MARKETen
dc.titleSTATISTICAL AND ECONOMIC TESTS OF EFFICIENCY IN THE ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE SOCCER BETTING MARKETen
dc.typeThesis, Honoursen
dc.contributor.departmentDiscipline of Financeen


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