Is the Debate on Net Zero Emission Targets in Australia Aligned with Political Preference Bias?

Abstract

Net Zero emission targets have become a politically sensitive policy in many, but not all, countries. It is suggested that they are not achievable and are potentially misaligned with energy security as Net Zero becomes intertwined with the move towards renewables and away from fossil fuel energy sources, where the latter is widely seen as the baseload for many nations. Australia is embroiled in a political debate on whether Net Zero as a target will achieve its emission objectives in the presence of escalating energy prices and uncertainty in respect of cost and damage to an economy, given a wealth of fossil fuel resources, as well as some support for nuclear power which currently is not sanctioned by the Federal government. There has been a lot of media attention to Net Zero (CO2) or greenhouse gas emissions, and it is unclear whether it is well understood, and what it might mean for Australia, given there are views that it is either a great idea or a bad idea. This paper draws on a new survey in Australia to gain an appreciation of public understanding of Net Zero and what the public thinks it might mean for Australians, and how their preferences are aligned with support for political parties. We estimate a hybrid logit choice model of support for political parties that encapsulates the endogeneity of “soft” variables such as latent attitude variables that are driven by observable “causes,” and unobservable heterogeneity, which together with contextual and socioeconomic characteristics provide evidence on preference bias for or against Net Zero associated with political affiliation.