Development and Application of a State-wide Transport Model System in Australia

Abstract

This paper develops a regional travel demand model system, called R-Tresis, with the capability to predict expected changes in public transport patronage under service scenarios up to 2056. Taking 2016 as the base year, this paper sets out the approach undertaken to develop the key network performance variables (travel times, fares and other costs, and service frequency) for four linehaul modes – train, coach, car, and plane. An aggregate modal share logit model for three trip purposes is estimated to identify the role of various trip attributes and socioeconomic characteristics to forecast modal shares in the base year 2016. The resulting models produce an accessibility index, as a derivative of a logit model that captures the role of each mode in defining the accessibility to each and every other location in NSW and the Australian Capital Territory. The accessibility index is used in a residential population model to identify the relationship between population and accessibility, which is important in identifying the potential growth in population as a result of improvements in the transport network. The estimated base year relationship between population and accessibility is then linked to a total travel demand model (i.e., one-way daily trips expanded up to a year) to obtain a relationship between changes in the population levels and travel. In addition, a total trips model for the existing population (under a business-as-usual scenario) identifies the relationship between existing resident’s trip activity and accessibility, which used in application to predict changes in travel (or induced trips) of the population associated with business as usual. We have chosen a corridor between Sydney and Newcastle and beyond to illustrate the application of the model system.