Travel time reliability, urban form, decision making under uncertainty and smart urban development

Abstract

Within a land use-transportation interaction model, this study embeds a behavioral framework which accommodates travel decision making under uncertainty into a spatial general equilibrium model to understand the interplay between individuals’ mode choices and urban form. Special attention is paid to demonstrating the multifold role of ambiguity attitude, a behavioral mechanism existing in real-market decisions but largely overlooked in urban models. Our baseline model outputs are consistent with the market evidence, which reinforces the rationality of the proposed model with a focus on behavioral realism. We also simulate the possible impacts of improved travel time reliability on system behavior and urban form, and the results suggest it is possible to realize smart development in terms of sustainable travel and city growth.