Forecasting Tourism Travel on Rural Roads

Abstract

The tourism sector is heavily reliant on the rural road system and it is not uncommon for the road and tourism authorities to receive submissions documenting perceived shortcomings of particular roads. This paper considers tourism demand in NSW and the development and application of analytical procedures for estimating the likely impact of future development scenarios on road-based tourism in NSW. A large number of demographic, socioeconomic and transport variables have influenced domestic and international tourism in NSW over recent decades. These include: population growth, household size and structure, vehicle ownership and operating costs and macro-economic decisions, such as tariff reductions. While future tourism demand is likely to be influenced by a range of variables, it is possible to specify several long term development scenarios which are likely to influence road-based tourism demand. These scenarios are defined by: population growth and distribution; road transport network development and private travel cost; and the attractiveness of tourist destinations. A spreadsheet-based analysis procedure has been developed and applied to estimate the impacts of each of the development scenarios. This has indicated that the long-term road-based tourism growth rate in NSW will be of the order of 2%, with the geographic distribution being influenced by the population and tourist facility development.