Predicting Demand for High Speed Rail in the Sydney- Canberra Corridor

Abstract

Accessibility by High Speed Rail (HSR) services between major cities within a nation and across borders is growing in popularity. Currently 15 nations are evaluating new HSR along the lines of the successful systems in Japan, France and Germany. An HSR link between Sydney and Canberra is currently in the feasibility stage. A major market study undertaken in 1994-95 by the Institute of Transport Studies identified the size of the potential market for HSR in a corridor currently dominated by air travel for business trips and car travel for non-business trips. This paper presents details of a joint revealed preference/stated choice model system to evaluate the choice of fare type conditional on mode and the choice of mode for business and non-business travel in the Sydney- Canberra Corridor with and without a proposed new HSR system. The full choice set of modes in the corridor is conventional train, charter coach, scheduled coach, plane and car. Plane and HSR offer a range of fare classes. We identify the current travel profile and predict HSR patronage under alternative fare regimes, taking into account diverted traffic, induced traffic and growth. The paper argues that previous studies which have treated fare class as exogenous are poor representations of the real choice context facing potential patrons of HSR.