Needs Assessment for Major Transport Infrastructure Investment

Abstract

Transportation infrastructure projects, like any investment, are ultimately accepted or rejected on a number of risk criteria. A most notable one is the revenue stream from the users of the facility. If the investment is to be justified on both commercial and social criteria, the risk is especially high; if there is an element of community social obligation (backed up by subsidy), then the revenue risk is of a different nature and typically much lower. The primary focus of this paper is on the continuing challenge of establishing ways to increase the reliability of traffic forecasts as a primary input in the forecast of revenue and the continuing role of in-depth attitudinal/opinion surveys with stakeholders to establish the needs agenda. The secondary focus is on promoting the case for a richer strategic systemwide approach to forecasting traffic demand for projects which has the capability of ranking specific infrastructure projects against alternative ways of improving the performance of the transport system in urban areas.