HAZARD-BASED DURATION MODELS AND THEIR APPLICATION TO TRANSPORTATION ANALYSIS

Abstract

A number of transportation-related phenomena deal with a time element that defines the duration until an event's occurrence. Examples include the time that transpires until a trip is made, the length of time a commuter delays a trip departure to avoid traffic congestion, and the time until a newly introduced mode is used. Hazard-based duration models, which have enjoyed widespread use in a number of non-transportation fields (e.g. economics, biostatistics), are an obvious choice for modeling such transportation phenomena. The objective of this paper is to present hazard-based models, in a general way, to individuals interested in transportation problems. In so doing, every effort is made to avoid a jargon-laidened approach that typifies current articles and texts on the subject. It is hoped that such a presentation, along with an overview of existing transportation applications of such models, will lead to an increased use of hazard-based duration models in transportation.