• Corrected Forecast Combinations 

      Vasnev, Andrey; Liu, Chu-An
      Published 2026
      This paper proposes corrected forecast combinations when the original combined forecast errors are serially dependent. Motivated by the classic Bates and Granger (1969) example, we show that combined forecast errors can ...
      Open Access
      Working Paper
    • Combining simple multivariate HAR-like models for portfolio construction 

      Clements, Adam; Vasnev, Andrey L.
      Published 2023
      Forecasts of the covariance matrix of returns is a crucial input into portfolio construction. In recent years multivariate version of the Heterogenous AutoRegressive (HAR) models have been designed to utilise realised ...
      Open Access
      Working Paper
    • The role of data and priors in estimating climate sensitivity 

      Ikefuji, Masako; Magnus, Jan R.; Vasnev, Andrey L.
      Published 2023
      In Bayesian theory, the data together with the prior produce a posterior. We show that it is also possible to follow the opposite route, that is, to use data and posterior information (both of which are observable) ...
      Open Access
      Working Paper
    • Base-Stock Policies with Constant Lead Time: Closed-Form Solutions and Applications 

      LI, ZHAOLIN (ERICK); LIANG, GUITIAN; FU, QI (GRACE); TEO, CHUNG-PIAW
      Published 2023-03-15
      We study stationary base-stock policies for multiperiod dynamic inventory systems with a constant lead time and independently and identically distributed (iid) demands. When ambiguities in the underlying demand distribution ...
      Working Paper
    • Global combinations of expert forecasts 

      Qian, Yilin; Thompson, Ryan; Vasnev, Andrey L
      Published 2022
      Expert forecast combination—the aggregation of individual forecasts from multiple subjectmatter experts— is a proven approach to economic forecasting. To date, research in this area has exclusively concentrated on local ...
      Open Access
      Working Paper