Research Publications and Outputs: Recent submissions
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Does the Survey of Professional Forecasters help predict the shape of recessions in real time?
Published 2023An updated version of our Markov-switching model of U.S. real GDP suggests the COVID-19 recession was more U-shaped than L-shaped. As with linear time series models, it is important to account for extreme outliers during ...Article -
Quarterly data for examining water market functionality in the sMDB
Published 2023-08-30This dataset provides quarterly statistics generated based on transactional level water trading data for key trading zones in the sMDB. All market transaction data were sourced from NSW and VIC state water registers. Ratios ...Open AccessDataset -
Estimating the euro area output gap using multivariate information and addressing the COVID-19 pandemic
Published 2023We estimate the euro area output gap by applying the Beveridge–Nelson decomposition based on a large Bayesian vector autoregression. Our approach incorporates multivariate information through the inclusion of a wide range ...Article -
Intergenerational disadvantage: Learning about equal opportunity from social assistance receipt
Published 2022We use variation in the intergenerational persistence across social assistance benefits over 18 years to study the drivers of intergenerational disadvantage. Young people are more likely to receive social assistance if ...Open AccessArticle -
Cyclical signals from the labor market
Published 2022We consider which labor market variables are the most informative for estimating and nowcasting the US output gap using a multivariate trend-cycle decomposition. Although the unemployment rate clearly contains important ...Open AccessArticle