Research Publications and Outputs: Recent submissions
-
Zero-COVID Policies: Melbourne's 112-Day Hard Lockdown Experiment Harmed Mostly Mothers
Published 2022Lockdowns were used worldwide to mitigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2. We demonstrate that the 112-day hard lockdown in Melbourne, Australia, the longest among OECD jurisdictions, exclusively penalized families with young ...Preprint -
Estimating household consumption insurance
Published 2021Blundell, Pistaferri, and Preston (American Economic Review, 2008, 98(5), 1887–1921) report an estimate of household consumption insurance with respect to permanent income shocks of 36%. In replicating findings for their ...Open AccessArticle -
Nowcasting the output gap
Published 2020We propose a way to directly nowcast the output gap using the Beveridge–Nelson decomposition based on a mixed-frequency Bayesian VAR. The mixed-frequency approach produces similar but more timely estimates of the U.S. ...Article -
Why Has the U.S. Economy Stagnated Since the Great Recession?
Published 2022Since the Great Recession in 2007–2009, U.S. real GDP has failed to return to its previously projected path, a phenomenon widely associated with secular stagnation. We investigate whether this stagnation was due to hysteresis ...Article -
Estimating and accounting for the output gap with large Bayesian vector autoregressions
Published 2020We consider how to estimate the trend and cycle of a time series, such as real gross domestic product, given a large information set. Our approach makes use of the Beveridge–Nelson decomposition based on a vector autoregression, ...Article