Research Publications and Outputs: Recent submissions
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Poverty and food insecurity during COVID-19: Phone-survey evidence from rural and urban Myanmar in 2020
Published 2022Myanmar first experienced the COVID-19 crisis as a relatively brief economic shock in early 2020, before the economy was later engulfed by a prolonged surge in COVID-19 cases from September 2020 onwards. To analyze poverty ...Article -
Estimating household consumption insurance
Published 2021Blundell, Pistaferri, and Preston (American Economic Review, 2008, 98(5), 1887–1921) report an estimate of household consumption insurance with respect to permanent income shocks of 36%. In replicating findings for their ...Open AccessArticle -
Why Has the U.S. Economy Stagnated Since the Great Recession?
Published 2022Since the Great Recession in 2007–2009, U.S. real GDP has failed to return to its previously projected path, a phenomenon widely associated with secular stagnation. We investigate whether this stagnation was due to hysteresis ...Article -
Estimating and accounting for the output gap with large Bayesian vector autoregressions
Published 2020We consider how to estimate the trend and cycle of a time series, such as real gross domestic product, given a large information set. Our approach makes use of the Beveridge–Nelson decomposition based on a vector autoregression, ...Article -
Likelihood-ratio-based confidence sets for the timing of structural breaks
Published 2015We propose the use of likelihood-ratio-based confidence sets for the timing of structural breaks in parameters from time series regression models. The confidence sets are valid for the broad setting of a system of multivariate ...Article