Browsing Research Publications and Outputs by subject "1402 Applied Economics"
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Cyclical signals from the labor market
Published 2022We consider which labor market variables are the most informative for estimating and nowcasting the US output gap using a multivariate trend-cycle decomposition. Although the unemployment rate clearly contains important ...Open AccessArticle -
Divorce early or divorce late? The long-term financial consequences.
Published 2018We use data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study (Understanding Society) to examine income, housing and wealth for those who divorce in England and Wales. We consider variation between different generations and examine ...Open AccessArticle -
Estimating and accounting for the output gap with large Bayesian vector autoregressions
Published 2020We consider how to estimate the trend and cycle of a time series, such as real gross domestic product, given a large information set. Our approach makes use of the Beveridge–Nelson decomposition based on a vector autoregression, ...Article -
Estimating household consumption insurance
Published 2021Blundell, Pistaferri, and Preston (American Economic Review, 2008, 98(5), 1887–1921) report an estimate of household consumption insurance with respect to permanent income shocks of 36%. In replicating findings for their ...Open AccessArticle -
Estimating the euro area output gap using multivariate information and addressing the COVID-19 pandemic
Published 2023We estimate the euro area output gap by applying the Beveridge–Nelson decomposition based on a large Bayesian vector autoregression. Our approach incorporates multivariate information through the inclusion of a wide range ...Article -
Likelihood-ratio-based confidence sets for the timing of structural breaks
Published 2015We propose the use of likelihood-ratio-based confidence sets for the timing of structural breaks in parameters from time series regression models. The confidence sets are valid for the broad setting of a system of multivariate ...Article -
Nowcasting the output gap
Published 2020We propose a way to directly nowcast the output gap using the Beveridge–Nelson decomposition based on a mixed-frequency Bayesian VAR. The mixed-frequency approach produces similar but more timely estimates of the U.S. ...Article -
When is discretionary fiscal policy effective?
Published 2021We investigate the effects of discretionary changes in government spending and taxes using a medium-scale nonlinear vector autoregressive model with policy shocks identified via sign restrictions. Tax cuts and spending ...Article -
Why Has the U.S. Economy Stagnated Since the Great Recession?
Published 2022Since the Great Recession in 2007–2009, U.S. real GDP has failed to return to its previously projected path, a phenomenon widely associated with secular stagnation. We investigate whether this stagnation was due to hysteresis ...Article