• Cyclical signals from the labor market 

      Morley, James; Berger, Tino; Boll, Paul David; Wong, Benjamin
      Published 2022
      We consider which labor market variables are the most informative for estimating and nowcasting the US output gap using a multivariate trend-cycle decomposition. Although the unemployment rate clearly contains important ...
      Open Access
      Article
    • Nowcasting the output gap 

      Berger, Tino; Morley, James; Wong, Benjamin
      Published 2020
      We propose a way to directly nowcast the output gap using the Beveridge–Nelson decomposition based on a mixed-frequency Bayesian VAR. The mixed-frequency approach produces similar but more timely estimates of the U.S. ...
      Article