Threats And Opportunities For High Speed Rail Transport In Competition With The Low-Cost Air Operators

Abstract

The apparition of Low Cost air Carriers (LCC) in Europe over the last decade has been a direct effect of the liberalisation of European Skies. However, its rapid growth wasn’t anticipated for most of the traditional European transport operators. Although traditional air carriers (or Full Cost Airlines, FCC) have been seen as the main receptors of the impact of this change, the expansion of LCC from their traditional market in and from the United Kingdom and Ireland to the continental Europe threats the rail marketshare in high speed services. High speed rail in Europe has proved to be a powerful competitor against the plane for travel times up to 3 and a half hour (i. e. distances up to 750 km). One of the main weapons of high speed rail against the air competitors has been the fares policy which was much lower than the average air rates. This situation has been changed by the LCC offering average fares even lower than the rail ones. One clear example of this new situation is the Paris – Köln relation, served by Thalys high-speed rail services and the LCC “Germanwings” offering better times and lower fares. This paper analyses this concurrence scenario, at present and in the future. A Logit model for the modal air/rail distribution has been calibrated showing the capacity of LCC to compete with high speed rail just with a Low-fare policy. It also shows the variable elasticity of average travellers on the fare rate depending on travel time. The need of high speed rail to act in order to keep its marketshare is showed together with the inevitable impact of the LCC in its market. Also it is showed its capacity to compete in fares, offering lower fares with high restrictions (as LCC do), and in time, offering best door-todoor times and a far more “quality” travel time. These may be its more effective countermeasures in order to not only maintain but increase its marketshare offering a competitive and sustainable alternative to air transport.