Different Responses to Travel Hindrances: Pandemic, Congestion, and Extreme Weather

Abstract

We investigate how different levels of perceived risk affect individual travel decisions. Three travel scenarios (daily grocery shopping, going to a restaurant, and attending a one-off sports match) are compared under three types of travel hindrances (pandemic, heavy rain, and traffic congestion). A survey in Japan, Germany and the UK reveals the following four implications. First, people's decisions differ depending on the travel scenario and the hindrance. Heavy rain is perceived as a more severe constraint than traffic congestion in the decision to postpone a travel, and fewer people cancel a sports match than restaurant. Second, people's decisions also depend on the certainty that the hindrance will be resolved. People are more likely to postpone or cancel a travel if there is a greater likelihood that the hindrance will be resolved soon. Third, the essentiality and substitutability of a travel influence the minimum discount rate for compensation. People require a higher discount rate for essential shopping than for dining out for postponement, and for dining out than for a sports match for cancellation. Fourth, the incentive mechanisms for postponing and cancelling a travel are not transferable across countries, as respondents in our sample countries show different tendencies.