Economic Assessment of a Dynamic Autonomous Road Transit System for Singapore

Abstract

Autonomous vehicle (AV) has been discussed as a promising solution to substantially improve transit system performance. However, the feasibility of AVs at a system level remains unclear. This paper offers an early glimpse of the efficiency performance of an AV-based transit system in Singapore, namely Dynamic Autonomous Road Transit (DART). Compared to the existing bus system, the improved operational strategy of DART service can garner higher efficiency with respective reductions of 44%, 66% and 47% in total cost of ownership (TCO), TCO/km/h and TCO/passenger. A stated-preference survey was conducted, and the data analysed via a mixed logit model. Travel time and travel cost remain critical for determining an individual’s travelling preferences. In addition, the current paper presents empirical evidence that travellers are more sensitive to travel time reduction, compared to travel cost reduction. It is also found that a traveller’s preferences towards walking, waiting and in-vehicle activities play an influential role of behavioural adjustment. Value of time (VOT) was calibrated with a value of S$ 31 and a reduction of 49% was observed for individuals who performed work-related activities while travelling.