Modelling of OJD : extension of project to include economic analysis and preparation of an existing package.

Abstract

Under MLA Project OJD.027, the pathogenesis, epidemiology and options for control of Johne's disease in sheep were reviewed and mathematical models developed to simulate the spread of Johne’s disease within infected flocks, and between flocks on a regional basis. The models also allow the evaluation and comparison of various control options at both flock and regional levels. These models were completed during 2002, and a final report on the project prepared for MLA. However, for these models to be effectively used as an aid to the control of OJD in Australia, it is essential that managers and advisers involved in the OJD program at State and local levels are familiar with the models and with the predicted effects of various control strategies, at both farm and regional level. At the farm level, information on the predicted effect and cost-benefit of various strategies will assist advisers in formulating effective and efficient control strategies for individual farmers. Similarly at local and State/Regional level, the output of the regional spread model and simulated control strategies will assist disease managers to make informed decisions about preferred control options for OJD.