The aims of this project were to provide comparative estimates of the flock-sensitivity of PFC and AGID
under a range of likely scenarios, using a simulation approach. Sample sizes required to achieve
equivalent performance of PFC and AGID under different conditions of prevalence and desired flocksensitivity
were also estimated, as well as the effect of variations in the assumptions on which the model
was based. The resulting Monte Carlo simulation model indicated (amongst other recommendations) that PFC should be the preferred screening test for surveillance and market-assurance testing for ovine
Johne’s disease in Australia, although the AGID may be an appropriate alternative where prevalence is likely to be high or where a
rapid result is required.