• Forecast combination for U.S. recessions with real-time data 

      Vasnev, Andrey; Pauwels, Laurent
      Published 2013-03-01
      This paper proposes the use of forecast combination to improve predictive accuracy in forecasting the U.S. business cycle index, as published by the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the NBER. It focuses on one-step ahead ...
      Open Access
      Working Paper
    • Forecast combination for U.S. recessions with real-time data 

      Vasnev, Andrey; Pauwels, Laurent
      Published 2013-01-01
      This paper proposes the use of forecast combination to improve predictive accuracy in forecasting the U.S. business cycle index as published by the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the NBER. It focuses on one-step ahead ...
      Open Access
      Working Paper
    • Practical considerations for optimal weights in density forecast combination 

      Vasnev, Andrey; Pauwels, Laurent
      Published 2013-01-01
      The problem of finding appropriate weights to combine several density forecasts is an important issue currently debated in the forecast combination literature. Recently, a paper by Hall and Mitchell (IJF, 2007) proposes ...
      Open Access
      Working Paper
    • Maximum likelihood estimation of time series models: the Kalman filter and beyond 

      Proietti, Tommaso; Luati, Alessandra
      Published 2012-05-01
      The purpose of this chapter is to provide a comprehensive treatment of likelihood inference for state space models. These are a class of time series models relating an observable time series to quantities called states, ...
      Open Access
      Working Paper
    • Mixed strategies in discriminatory divisible-good auctions 

      Anderson, E.J.; Holmberg, P.; Philpott, A.B.
      Published 2009-11-01
      Using the concept of market-distribution functions, we derive general optimality conditions for discriminatory divisible-good auctions, which are also applicable to Bertrand games and non-linear pricing. We introduce the ...
      Open Access
      Working Paper