From Malacca to the arctic: understanding the arctic strategy through the Malacca

Abstract

China is a prisoner of its geography, where approximately 80 Per cent of its crude oil imports come through the Strait of Malacca, showing a fundamental strategic vulnerability and exposing its energy supply chain to potential disruption by rival powers, particularly the United States with its chain of alliances and India with its geographic presence in the Indian Ocean. Drawing on Mahanian’s concept of sea power, this paper examines how China has pursued strategic diversification of maritime routes to mitigate its structural chokepoint dependency, with particular focus on the Arctic as an emerging supplementary corridor. The analysis evaluates two Principled mitigation strategies. First, the string of pearls - a network of dual-use infrastructure spread across South and Southeast Asia developed under the envelope of the Belt and Road Initiative seeking to establish a forward naval presence in the Indian Ocean; however, major parts of this initiative, such as CPEC and CMEC, are struggling from operational constraints due to armed conflicts or anti-Chinese sentiment. Second, the Arctic policy formalised in 2017 through Vision for Maritime Cooperation and the 2018 Arctic White Paper, positions the Northern Sea Route as a strategic alternative to Suez-dependent trade lanes, offering a potential 40 per cent reduction in shipping distance between East Asian and European ports. The paper finds that, though Sino-Russian cooperation has accelerated following Russia's post-2022 international isolation, the Northern Sea Route remains constrained by severe infrastructure deficits, seasonal navigability limitations, and the withdrawal of Chinese firms from sanctioned projects, revealing financial pragmatism over strategic commitment. Furthermore, a coordinated strategic push from the Western alliance system in the Arctic region has significantly slowed Chinese resource and infrastructure investments across the wider Arctic region. The paper concludes that the Chinese Arctic strategy is a long-term investment fuelled by commercial incentives compelling enough to overcome Nordic reluctance and to prioritise economic rationality over security concerns, though the ultimate viability is contingent on the Northern Sea Route's operational maturation and the sustainability of the Sino-Russian partnership amid escalating geopolitical polarisation.