Strategic Airline Decarbonisation from a Door-to-Door Perspective

Abstract

This thesis examines practical, near-term ways for airlines to cut emissions as climate pressures intensify. Aviation produces ~2.5% of global CO₂ (close to 5% of non-CO2 effects are included). With passenger demand continuing to grow, unchecked growth could expose airlines to significant risks.

Rather than waiting for future technologies, the research focuses on “low-hanging fruit”: ready-now, cost-effective measures that can be implemented quickly, complementing longer-term solutions such as sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and hydrogen.

Two pillars anchor the thesis. First, airline carbon calculators are gate-to-gate, ignoring ground connections. In car-dependent markets, these ground segments can add up to 22% to total trip emissions. A novel door-to-door (D2D) model shows that simple shifts to airport ground trips can save more CO₂ on busy domestic routes than SAF blends at lower cost. The thesis tests how travellers respond when D2D CO₂ communication during flight booking. Choice experiments with 1,000+ respondents in Australia and New Zealand show meaningful shifts toward greener ground options, especially on shorter routes.

Second, choice experiments assess willingness-to-pay (WTP) for SAF via book-and-claim carbon offsets. It reveals most passengers offer premiums far below SAF’s current cost, highlighting financial risk if SAF mandates expand without policy support. A latent-class analysis identifies three segments: enthusiastic supporters (25%), indifferent avoiders (13%), and a cautious majority (62%). Stronger, verifiable traceability (e.g., blockchain-enabled tracking) boosts carbon offset’s uptake especially amongst the last cohort.

The thesis recommends embedding D2D calculators in booking flows, using targeted policy to narrow the SAF cost-WTP gap, and redesigning offsets around radical transparency. It extends carbon accounting beyond the airport fence and provides tools airlines and regulators can deploy within quarters, not decades.