Conflict Mediation and Authoritarian Resilience: Instrumentalising the UN diplomatic process in Syria

Abstract

This dissertation examines authoritarian approaches to third-party mediation and investigates whether the engagement of autocracies in mediation initiatives can be used to increase their endurance. This is important because existing research tends to assume the initiation of, and engagement in, mediation efforts as a positive step towards peace. Drawing from in-depth interviews with mediation practitioners, and my lived experience of the war in Syria, this thesis bridges a gap between studies on authoritarian resilience and the literature on conflict mediation. I develop a framework to examine the link between mediation and authoritarianism and apply it to the participation of the Assad regime in the UN process between 2012 and 2021. The findings of this research suggest that authoritarian regimes can manipulate mediation initiatives and instead use them as a tactic of war. I also argue that the Assad regime’s management of the UN process was primarily facilitated and enabled by broader external dynamics and the instrumentalisation of third parties in the mediation process.

By analysing how autocratic regimes manage mediation efforts, this research has important implications for the study of conflict resolution. First, it sheds light on the role of diplomatic activities in sustaining and justifying the state’s use of violence. Second, it problematises the viability of mediation as an effective conflict management tool in authoritarian settings. Third, it demonstrates how external states influence the engagement of warring sides in mediation, and the prospects of reaching a negotiated settlement.

While existing literature typically emphasises the potential of international mediation to resolve conflict, reduce escalation, and achieve peace, this thesis tells a story about a darker and underexplored side of international mediation. This story is about the potential of to create not peace, but rather its illusion.