Our Home Girt By Sea: Rethinking Australian Strategic Policy in the Indo-Pacific

Abstract

Since Federation in 1901, the Commonwealth of Australia has depended on the leading power within the region to underwrite its security and prosperity – with primacy initially enjoyed by the United Kingdom, and then following the events of World War Two, the United States of America.

While having benefitted immensely from this regional order, the geostrategic environment that Australia now finds itself in is rapidly evolving and becoming increasingly hostile amidst the emergence of great power competition between Beijing and Washington. This intensifying grand strategic rivalry coincides with the shifting balance of power which has been facilitated by China’s monumental rise and America’s relative decline. Subsequently, it is the first time in our history that we may not be able to depend upon ‘a great and powerful friend’ to safeguard our national interests.

This uncertain future has sparked debates in political, academic, and strategic communities, many of which are riddled with premature assumptions and wishful predictions, related to the Sino-American contest for supremacy and the seemingly limited options available for Australia. A ‘gap’ in the literature, then, is examining the concrete ways that Canberra can take advantage of the situation and maximise its own power within the Indo-Pacific. However, in contrast to the prevailing tendencies of previous research, this thesis does not focus on whether Australia can help the United States maintain its dominant position and successfully prevent China from assuming regional primacy, but rather, how it can strengthen itself irrespective of what regional order may come.

To that end, employing a fundamentally neorealist perspective, and combining both offensive and defensive strands, I explore the ways that Australian strategic policy within the Indo-Pacific can be recalibrated to not only navigate through the rapidly evolving and increasingly hostile geostrategic environment, but also, simultaneously contribute to a more potent, resolute, and capable Commonwealth of Australia.