The “Unpredictability Doctrine” vs. “The Steady State:” Indo-Pacific Diplomacy under the Trump Presidency

Abstract

President Trump’s “America First” foreign policy doctrine contravened the foundational principles of the American-led international order. However, the extent to which his unconventional preferences transformed the character of American commitment to its partners is disputed. This thesis proposes that an implementation gap exists between presidential rhetoric and the policies implemented by the pluralistic foreign policy organisation. Accordingly, this thesis poses two overarching questions. First, does grand strategy take precedence over presidential doctrine in foreign policy decision-making? Second, if so, is the foreign policy detail capable of diverging from the visions of an anti-establishment president to ensure its implementation? This thesis unifies competing theoretical perspectives on the inherently contradictory concepts of ‘grand strategy’ and ‘presidential doctrine,’ and examines their influence on political appointees’ diplomatic travel. At the core of this thesis is a comparative, empirical analysis of 779 diplomatic trips, complemented by a content analysis of 115 addresses delivered by Obama and Trump administration appointees in the Indo-Pacific.