Geodemography, environment and societal characteristics drive the global diversity of emerging, zoonotic and human pathogens

Abstract

Understanding human disease, zoonoses and emergence is a global priority. A deep understanding of pathogen ecology and the complex inherent relationships at the agent–environment interface are essential to inform disease control and mitigation and to predict the next zoonotic pandemic. Here, we present the first analysis of social and environmental factors associated with human, zoonotic and emerging pathogen diversity at a global scale, controlling for research effort. Predictor–response associations were captured by generalized additive models. We used national level data to aid in policy development to inform control and mitigation. We show that human population density, land area, temperature and the human development index at the country level are associated with human, emerging and zoonotic pathogen diversity. Multiple models demonstrating society–agent–environment interactions demonstrate that social, environmental and geographical factors predict global pathogen diversity. The analyses demonstrate that weather variables (temperature and rainfall) have the potential to influence pathogen diversity.