Coupling an Integrated Assessment Models with an Input-Output database
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Type
ThesisThesis type
Masters by ResearchAuthor/s
Qiyu, LiuAbstract
Anthropogenic climate change is a major threat to human existence. Policy makers need concrete data and projections on future emissions pathways to make informed decisions on how to mitigate the impacts of climate change. Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) are a class of models ...
See moreAnthropogenic climate change is a major threat to human existence. Policy makers need concrete data and projections on future emissions pathways to make informed decisions on how to mitigate the impacts of climate change. Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) are a class of models prominently used to quantify the impact of climate change on the earth and human systems. The Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impact (MESSAGEix) model is one of the most widely used IAMs. The MESSAGEix model has 4 main components: an energy system model, a macroeconomic model, a land-use model and an atmospheric science model. The energy system model is at the core of MESSAGEix since a large proportion of greenhouse gas emissions causing climate change are from the production and consumption of energy. MESSAGEix covers the direct supply chain impacts, such as emissions and energy use from energy production and transmission sectors. However, by extrapolating historical final energy requirements into the future, MESSAGEix misses the role of indirect energy requirements that play out through supply chains. Most importantly, MESSAGEix’s future final energy trajectories do not reveal anything about the commodities that contribute to future energy demand. I have therefore identified a point of improvement for the MESSAGEix model - to enhance the capability of the model by incorporating an exogenous final energy requirements scenario builder (IO-scenario builder) capable of capturing energy demand associated with an economy’s supply-chain system. In this study, I have successfully developed a method for linking MESSAGEix with an input-output (IO) database. More specifically, I have constructed an Australian national-level model (MESSAGEix-Australia) to empirically demonstrate this linking method. To further demonstrate the capabilities of this iterative linkage, results of an existing hybrid Life-Cycle Assessment (LCA) study on the energy implications of Australia’s future road system are incorporated into MESSAGEix-Australia.
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See moreAnthropogenic climate change is a major threat to human existence. Policy makers need concrete data and projections on future emissions pathways to make informed decisions on how to mitigate the impacts of climate change. Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) are a class of models prominently used to quantify the impact of climate change on the earth and human systems. The Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impact (MESSAGEix) model is one of the most widely used IAMs. The MESSAGEix model has 4 main components: an energy system model, a macroeconomic model, a land-use model and an atmospheric science model. The energy system model is at the core of MESSAGEix since a large proportion of greenhouse gas emissions causing climate change are from the production and consumption of energy. MESSAGEix covers the direct supply chain impacts, such as emissions and energy use from energy production and transmission sectors. However, by extrapolating historical final energy requirements into the future, MESSAGEix misses the role of indirect energy requirements that play out through supply chains. Most importantly, MESSAGEix’s future final energy trajectories do not reveal anything about the commodities that contribute to future energy demand. I have therefore identified a point of improvement for the MESSAGEix model - to enhance the capability of the model by incorporating an exogenous final energy requirements scenario builder (IO-scenario builder) capable of capturing energy demand associated with an economy’s supply-chain system. In this study, I have successfully developed a method for linking MESSAGEix with an input-output (IO) database. More specifically, I have constructed an Australian national-level model (MESSAGEix-Australia) to empirically demonstrate this linking method. To further demonstrate the capabilities of this iterative linkage, results of an existing hybrid Life-Cycle Assessment (LCA) study on the energy implications of Australia’s future road system are incorporated into MESSAGEix-Australia.
See less
Date
2021Rights statement
The author retains copyright of this thesis. It may only be used for the purposes of research and study. It must not be used for any other purposes and may not be transmitted or shared with others without prior permission.Faculty/School
Faculty of Science, School of PhysicsAwarding institution
The University of SydneyShare