Assessment of microbial risk during Australian industrial practices for Escherichia coli O157:H7 in fresh cut-cos lettuce: A stochastic quantitative approach

Abstract

Escherichia coli O157:H7 risk associated with the consumption of fresh cut-cos lettuce during Australian industrial practices was assessed. A probabilistic risk assessment model was developed and implemented in the @Risk software by using the Monte Carlo simulation technique with 1,000,000 iterations. Australian preharvest practices yielded predicted annual mean E. coli O157:H7 levels from 0.2 to −3.4 log CFU/g and prevalence values ranged from 2 to 6.4%. While exclusion of solar radiation from the baseline model yielded a significant increase in concentration of E. coli O157:H7 (−5.2 -log fold), drip irrigation usage, exclusion of manure amended soil and rainfall reduced E. coli O157:H7 levels by 7.4, 6.5, and 4.3-log fold, respectively. The microbial quality of irrigation water and irrigation type both had a significant effect on E. coli O157:H7 concentrations at harvest (p < 0.05). The probability of illness due to consumption of E. coli O157:H7 contaminated fresh cut-cos lettuce when water washing interventions were introduced into the processing module, was reduced by 1.4–2.7-log fold (p < 0.05). This study provides a robust basis for assessment of risk associated with E. coli O157:H7 contamination on fresh cut-cos lettuce for industrial practices and will assist the leafy green industry and food safety authorities in Australia to identify potential risk management strategies.