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dc.contributor.authorChin, Vincenten_AU
dc.contributor.authorIoannidis, John P.A.en_AU
dc.contributor.authorTanner, Martin A.en_AU
dc.contributor.authorCripps, Sallyen_AU
dc.date.accessioned2021-04-06T00:55:31Z
dc.date.available2021-04-06T00:55:31Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/2123/24835
dc.description.abstractObjective: To compare the inference regarding the effectiveness of the various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) for COVID-19 obtained from different SIR models. Study design and setting: We explored two models developed by Imperial College that considered only NPIs without accounting for mobility (model 1) or only mobility (model 2), and a model accounting for the combination of mobility and NPIs (model 3). Imperial College applied models 1 and 2 to 11 European countries and to the USA, respectively. We applied these models to 14 European countries (original 11 plus another 3), over two different time horizons. Results: While model 1 found that lockdown was the most effective measure in the original 11 countries, model 2 showed that lockdown had little or no benefit as it was typically introduced at a point when the time-varying reproduction number was already very low. Model 3 found that the simple banning of public events was beneficial, while lockdown had no consistent impact. Based on Bayesian metrics, model 2 was better supported by the data than either model 1 or model 3 for both time horizons. Conclusions: Inferences on effects of NPIs are non-robust and highly sensitive to model specification. In the SIR modeling framework, the impacts of lockdown are uncertain and highly model dependent.en_AU
dc.language.isoenen_AU
dc.subjectCOVID-19en_AU
dc.subjectCoronavirusen_AU
dc.titleEffect Estimates of COVID-19 Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions are Non-Robust and Highly Model-Dependenten_AU
dc.typeArticleen_AU
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.jclinepi.2021.03.014


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