Effect Estimates of COVID-19 Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions are Non-Robust and Highly Model-Dependent
Field | Value | Language |
dc.contributor.author | Chin, Vincent | en_AU |
dc.contributor.author | Ioannidis, John P.A. | en_AU |
dc.contributor.author | Tanner, Martin A. | en_AU |
dc.contributor.author | Cripps, Sally | en_AU |
dc.date.accessioned | 2021-04-06T00:55:31Z | |
dc.date.available | 2021-04-06T00:55:31Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2021 | |
dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/2123/24835 | |
dc.description.abstract | Objective: To compare the inference regarding the effectiveness of the various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) for COVID-19 obtained from different SIR models. Study design and setting: We explored two models developed by Imperial College that considered only NPIs without accounting for mobility (model 1) or only mobility (model 2), and a model accounting for the combination of mobility and NPIs (model 3). Imperial College applied models 1 and 2 to 11 European countries and to the USA, respectively. We applied these models to 14 European countries (original 11 plus another 3), over two different time horizons. Results: While model 1 found that lockdown was the most effective measure in the original 11 countries, model 2 showed that lockdown had little or no benefit as it was typically introduced at a point when the time-varying reproduction number was already very low. Model 3 found that the simple banning of public events was beneficial, while lockdown had no consistent impact. Based on Bayesian metrics, model 2 was better supported by the data than either model 1 or model 3 for both time horizons. Conclusions: Inferences on effects of NPIs are non-robust and highly sensitive to model specification. In the SIR modeling framework, the impacts of lockdown are uncertain and highly model dependent. | en_AU |
dc.language.iso | en | en_AU |
dc.subject | COVID-19 | en_AU |
dc.subject | Coronavirus | en_AU |
dc.title | Effect Estimates of COVID-19 Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions are Non-Robust and Highly Model-Dependent | en_AU |
dc.type | Article | en_AU |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2021.03.014 |
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