Revisiting Power Transition Theory: An Analysis of US-Sino Relations in the Twenty- First Century

Abstract

Through the lens of power transition theory (PTT), the following research examines China’s reemergence on the world stage, focusing on its growing power and its status quo evaluation of regional and global systems. Contrary to the balance of power theory, PTT suggests that the probability of conflict increases under conditions of parity where a rising challenger is dissatisfied with the existing status quo, while the probability of conflict decreases under conditions of preponderance and a broad acceptance of the status quo. As such, the primary objective of this research is to determine if the US-Sino power gap is in fact closing, and if China is a satisfied member of its region and the broader global system. Assuring that China’s rise is accompanied with its acceptance of the status quo is critical for the maintenance of peace in twenty- first century great power relations. While the rise of China has revived academic interest in PTT, critics of the theory have voiced their concerns over the theory’s core concepts, power and satisfaction, thus highlighting operational concerns and issues surrounding conceptual clarity. Hence, a second objective of this research is to expand upon the traditional power transition approaches to measuring and conceptualizing power and status quo evaluations. Here, power is analyzed in terms of resources, ability, outcomes, and state stability, while status quo evaluations are examined from the global and regional levels, resulting in a comprehensive analysis of the US-Sino relationship in the twenty-first century. The conclusions reached in this work suggest that while there is still an opportunity for US policymakers to adjust their approach toward a rising China in order to foster greater satisfaction, currently, China is dissatisfied with the United States’ role in the Asia Pacific region, and more generally with the US-led world order.