Engineering Democracy: The Origins of the Political Transition from Military Rule in Myanmar

Abstract

Why did the military in Myanmar embark on a road to democracy? Military dictatorships tend to break down under pressure, being unable to overcome economic crises, mass protests, or intense intra-elite conflict. However, the military regime in Myanmar faced a different path. The military leaders decided to relinquish power after six decades of ruling intentionally. This dissertation examines one of the most puzzling cases of regime transition from military dictatorship in recent times. The study’s main argument is that the military dictatorship in Myanmar democratised once it was institutionally strong. The overarching research framework evolves around institutional approaches. The notable feature of Myanmar’s transition is that this occurred during the height of the military’s institutional strength. The research defines the military’s institutional strength as a combination of the military’s institutional, mobilisational, and coercive capacity. When it was institutionally weak and challenged by growing grassroots discontent, the regime opted for limited forms of political liberalisation. The military regime took the path to democracy when it was only strengthened its institutional, mobilisational, and coercive capacity. The research demonstrates that the overarching institutional settings engineered by the outgoing military rule were designed to ensure the Tatmadaw’s continuous role in domestic affairs and to secure the stability of institutions by deterring subsequent successors from changing them. Myanmar has entered the post-authoritarian state. However, the Tatmadaw has still taken advantage of the prerogatives as inscribed in the Constitution and the independent status as one of the most important institutions. In this regard, the consequences of the military-led democratisation in Myanmar suggest that the outgoing military rule has been largely intact in the post-authoritarian state based on institutional foundations created over the last two decades.