Modelling the impact of COVID‐19 on intensive care services in New South Wales

Abstract

Background: The Australian healthcare system faces a mounting burden due to COVID-19. Modelling performed in a comparable population in the United Kingdom anticipates a substantial burden for intensive care departments. Methods: This analysis uses two approaches to estimating intensive care unit (ICU) bed demands associated with COVID-19 in the context of local health districts in NSW. In the first approach, the findings of an individual-based simulation model undertaken in the United Kingdom (UK) was applied to the age distribution of the NSW population. In the second approach, we developed a compartmental model applied to the NSW population. In both models, we estimated the number of hospitalisations and peak ICU demand at the initial peak of the COVID-19 epidemic, under a number of mitigation strategies. Results: Applying UK-based model to the NSW population, the peak demand for ICU beds was forecast to be 6965 ICU beds with an intensive mitigation strategy (797% of the ICU capacity prior to COVID-19). The compartmental model estimated that under a strategy that reduced transmission by one third, at least 5109 ICU beds would be required (584% of the prior ICU capacity). Conclusions: The burden upon intensive care services due to COVID-19 was forecast to be immense with both modelling approaches. Strategies to mitigate transmission must be accompanied by substantial increases in the capacity of critical care services in advance of peak demand. Modelling is an important tool to assist policymakers and the public to understand the impacts pandemic diseases.