Methods to assess the impacts of subnational sustainability

Abstract

Environmental, social, and economic problems, such as global warming, natural disasters, urbanization, and poverty, are interlinked and become more complexly entwined under globalization. In 2015, recognizing global problems such as these, all United Nations member states adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, which outlines sustainable development goals (SDGs). At the same time, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) adopted the Paris Agreement, which has the long-term goal of mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; each nation is expected to increase its mitigation target in order to limit global warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius. To achieve the goals set out in the international agreements, nations need to identify problems and assess the impact of these problems at the subnational level, not only on a national and worldwide scale. In fact, there is an ever-growing need to construct a subnational analysis tool to identify problems and find solutions using micro- and macro-analytical tools, such as a multiregional input–output (MRIO) database. The main aim of this thesis is to develop models for sustainability analysis at the subnational level and apply them to assessing environmental, economic, and social impacts. To this end, a cloud-computing platform called the Japan Industrial Ecology Laboratory (IELab) was developed. The IELab is highly flexible in terms of its sectoral and regional resolution—enabling users to build customized Japanese MRIO tables in accordance with their specific objectives. A subnational MRIO analysis can track inter-regional trade for cities, counties, or states within a country. Footprint analysis conducted using the MRIO database can help fill in information gaps between producers and consumers on various economic, social, and environmental issues. In the case study, food loss analysis was conducted to examine regional food loss, not only from a production perspective, but also from a demand-side. As another subnational analytical method, a bottom-up technology model was presented as CO2 emission mitigation as an example. Using the model, the impact of future technological changes in the regional electricity system on Japan’s overall energy mix was assessed.