Got AATitude? A quantitative analysis of refugee decision-making at the Administrative Appeals Tribunal

Abstract

The Administrative Appeals Tribunal (AAT) is the first level of appeal for an asylum seeker whose application has been rejected by the Department of Home Affairs. There have been allegations that appointments at the AAT have become politicised. Despite these concerns, there exists no empirical means to test political influence at the AAT. This thesis develops a method to quantitatively test these allegations and provide further insights into asylum decision-making. Drawing off a specially generated Database of all publicly available refugee decisions at the AAT for the years 2015-2018 (2,272 cases), this study measures the effect of the Party appointing each Member on asylum outcomes. The key finding is that the odds of a Labor-appointed Member giving a favourable decision to an asylum-seeker were 1.46 times higher than those of a Liberal-appointed Member. Further, this study finds that the decision patterns vary significantly between Labor- and Liberal-appointed Members for applications from the same country of origin.