Landscape Evolution Modeling and Quantitative Provenance Analysis Across Scales and Time for Mineral Exploration

Abstract

The global transition toward net-zero carbon emissions has intensified the search for economically viable copper deposits. While traditional exploration methods remain effective, they are insufficient to meet growing demand, as they rarely account for the long-term evolution, preservation, and remobilization of ore bodies. This thesis introduces innovative frameworks using the Landscape Evolution Model (LEM) goSPL to overcome these limitations. Designed for deep-time, large-scale simulations, goSPL integrates paleo-elevation, paleoclimate, tectonics, and sea-level change to model sediment transport from source to sink, bridging climate dynamics and ore body evolution.

The thesis aims to (1) develop and apply a method for quantitative provenance analysis using well-constrained LEMs and (2) investigate the role of climate in ore body exhumation, remobilization, and preservation by comparing models under varying forcing conditions.

Three case studies demonstrate goSPL’s application to mineral exploration. The first models the Miocene Gulf of Mexico, validating sediment routing and provenance results against geological data. The second focuses on the red beds of the Southern Permian Basin, linking sediment provenance and lithology to copper potential in overlying Kupferschiefer shales. The third uses a global Cenozoic model to evaluate porphyry copper preservation through exhumation rates and emplacement depths.

Together, these studies show that landscape evolution modeling provides a quantitative, scalable, and reproducible framework for mineral systems analysis. By integrating goSPL with provenance and mineral systems thinking, this thesis pioneers the use of LEMs in copper exploration, highlighting Earth surface processes as key to understanding and predicting mineral prospectivity.