Fear of Missing Out: Harnessing Animal Perceptions of Missed Opportunity Costs to Alter Decision- Making and Improve Wildlife Management

Abstract

Almost every decision an animal makes comprises a trade-off between rejected and selected alternatives, and fitness gains from foregone alternatives represent the missed opportunity costs (MOCs) of a decision. Wildlife management relies on understanding animal decision-making, but MOCs, a core driver of decision-making, remain largely overlooked. Animal perceptions of MOCs are shaped by information, providing an opportunity for wildlife managers to manipulate behaviour using dishonest sensory information (misinformation). Yet, little is known about how animals perceive, collect, and use information about MOCs. In this thesis I examine the role of MOCs in animal decision-making and investigate how sensory cues can change animal perceptions of MOCs to alter decision-making for wildlife and pest management. All experiments address real world management problems using wild house mice (Mus musculus), a significant pest species. I conducted several manipulative experiments in the field and semi-wild enclosures to determine how misinformation predicted to alter perceptions of MOCs influences wildlife interactions with management stimuli. Firstly, I showed that increasing olfactory search costs for newly sown wheat seeds by camouflaging their odour with matching olfactory cues can increase MOCs and make mice give up on them. Secondly, I found that mice base MOC calculations on nutritional factors, consuming less preferred foods to meet essential macronutrient requirements, highlighting implications for baiting programs. Finally, I found that attractive, inaccessible resources (i.e. missed opportunities) can decrease perceived MOCs at foraging patches, making mice forage longer, tolerate greater risk, accept lowerquality food, and interact more with trapping devices. Together, these findings highlight the importance of MOCs in animal foraging decisions and demonstrates how misinformation shapes perceptions of MOCs, offering novel solutions to wildlife management challenges.