Habitability dynamics of Pacific Islands in a changing climate

Abstract

Islands and atolls in the Pacific face heightened climate risk due to low elevations and limited resources. The question of (unin)habitability in these locations is often simplified to characteristics of hazard exposure, reinforcing assumptions of inevitable mass migration. This thesis builds on existing research, challenging the idea of linear causality between hazard exposure and migration by examining the relative and dynamic nature of habitability in the Pacific.

The compounding and cascading effects of climate change add complexity in untangling how impacts influence habitability perceptions and migration decisions. I began this work by systematically identifying the multicausal factors that affect climate-affected populations’ decisions to leave or remain in place. I then engaged experts to contextualise these findings by hazard type and to the specific geography of Pacific atolls, using the country of Kiribati as a case study location. Participatory model building activities were used to understand habitability needs and migration decision-making in Kiribati, resulting in a systems map of habitability.

This thesis emphasises co-produced knowledge with research partners, answering calls for a grounded understanding of habitability from perspective of those with localised knowledge and experience. The work in this thesis culminates in a locally derived system dynamics model of the social-ecological system in Kiribati over the next century. The novelty of this work lies in the identification of key drivers of habitability in Kiribati and examination of how these core feedback loops shift in dominance in the coming decades. The results of this work have practical implications for the strategic adaptation planning in the Pacific and can be used to further informed, evidence-based policy development.