The Political Demography of Eurasia

Abstract

Kingsley Davis (1954) argued that population studies provide a unique perspective on global politics. This thesis examines political demography by integrating demographic trends with traditional geopolitics to assess their long-term strategic implications. While political demography remains underexplored in geopolitical analysis, this research bridges the gap by incorporating demographic shifts into strategic forecasting for Eurasia.

Using UN Population Division data, the study models demographic scenarios across 53 countries, projecting trends in 10-year intervals until 2100 through probabilistic forecasting. By applying the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), it identifies population concentration shifts between key Eurasian nations, offering insights into emerging geopolitical hierarchies. Findings highlight that declining populations in China, Russia, and Japan contrast with South Asia’s demographic expansion, suggesting a potential shift in geopolitical influence.

Each chapter builds toward this conclusion: Chapter 1 establishes key concepts, Chapter 2 reviews theoretical perspectives on political demography and geopolitics, and Chapter 3 analyzes UN demographic trends. Chapter 4 explores strategic implications, particularly among China, India, Russia, and Pakistan, while Chapter 5 employs simulation modeling to assess alternative demographic futures.

The research underscores that demographic factors—size, growth, and age structure—will shape Eurasia’s geopolitical landscape in the 21st century. Unlike traditional metrics like economic or military power, population dynamics may increasingly define global influence. The study contributes to political demography by demonstrating its strategic relevance in international relations and policy planning. Despite its focus on Eurasia, it acknowledges limitations, including reliance on UN data and the exclusion of other regions. Future research should expand this framework to broader geopolitical contexts.