Food security and impacts of disasters such as climate change on global food supply

Abstract

Disasters can negatively impact production output, income, employment, trade, supply chains and macronutrient availability. To alleviate the impacts of disasters, the impacts need to be quantified, allowing trends in production loss and the vulnerable regions and sectors to be identified. Disaster studies explore different disaster types in varying regions and sectors, with a range of impact and study years, and have different severities and units to describe production losses. This thesis provides methods to restructure these disaster variables so that trends and conclusions can be drawn. Through data restructuring, multiple regression analysis was able to be adopted, allowing comparison of disaster variables. The multiple regression results were combined with nutritional consumption information to determine the macronutrient availability of different foods post-disaster. Economic spillovers of disasters were also determined to assess the direct and indirect regional and sectoral losses. These methods were used to research disaster impacts in Australia, the Philippines, Fiji and Tonga. The results indicate that all regions and sectors post-disaster, experience economic spillovers. Interestingly, the greatest regional spillovers do not necessarily relate to the impacted regions’ main trade partners. The regression analysis highlights that climate disasters impact Australian livestock production more than cropping. In Fiji and Tonga, climate disasters are predicted to reduce root crop production more than fish availability. The year of impact and study year has a positive relationship with climate-induced production losses, suggesting that, the more recent the study and later the impact year, the greater the production loss. All macronutrient availability declines post-climate disaster, affecting food security. The results of this dissertation will assist in identifying regions and sectors that will be impacted by disasters, aiding disaster management plans.