System Dynamics Modelling for Public Health: An Application in Childhood Obesity

Abstract

Obesity remains a significant public health challenge in Australia and internationally. Addressing childhood obesity prevention is a crucial strategy for public health, as it increases the immediate health of youth and reduces the risk of developing chronic conditions in adulthood. The factors contributing to child and adolescent obesity are complex and intersect with various individual, familial, community and societal factors. The complexity of child and adolescent obesity creates challenges for evidence-based public health and decision-making. Systems science approaches are essential to explore the interactions between obesity drivers and public health policy, aiming to promote a healthier population.

The primary aim of this thesis was to develop a system dynamics model capturing population-level determinants influencing child and adolescent obesity using existing data and expert knowledge. Using this model, the thesis investigated the impact of public health strategies to reduce or prevent child and adolescent obesity. Additional methodological aims included examining methods that verify and build confidence in public health system dynamics models, as well as exploring how data uncertainty affects system dynamics modelling and its role in decision support.

This thesis contributes in two ways. Firstly, developing a system dynamic model has important implications for using and applying evidence-based public health methods for childhood obesity research, policy design and implementation. Secondly, this thesis offers a practical example of approaches to model validation and the quantification of model uncertainty that could be used in other forms of system dynamics modelling.